Microsoft and IBM - two giants falling!

I credit the fact that I'm in this industry to Microsoft and IBM.  I was enthralled with the introduction of a small business class computer that you could place on any desk and with the OS and applications that made computers accessible.  Applications like Lotus 1-2-3, VisiCalc, Wordstar and dBase III.  Yes, this was long before the introduction of graphical OS - they all ran on MS-DOS, don't cringe, a text based OS.  And, yes, that means I was playing with these systems shortly after IBM introduced the first IBM PC - the year was 1983 and the IBM PC was only 2 years old.

While attending college, I got a job installing PC's, setting them up and introducing the client to their new system.  I also picked up computers that weren't working properly and brought them back to the service desk to be repaired.  At the time, PASCAL was the language of choice.  I was learning how to program in this language in school and the company I was working for allowed me to take a Compaq Portable PC back to my dorm room.  I convinced my instructors to let me use the Compaq for my programming assignments (I think I was using a copy of Borland Pascal - but my memory is a little hazy) versus having to logon to the DEC PDP 11/70 - a mini computer.  I also was able to get my hands on copies of Microsoft Assembler and Microsoft Basic.  Much as I hate to admit it - that was geek heaven at the time.

I loved the PC and MS-DOS.  Config.sys and AutoExec.Bat were my friends - I knew how to get into these files and make changes to the way that the system operated and the utilities that would be loaded into memory.  Microsoft and IBM made it fun and easy to use these new computers and made programming accessible.  Ask my folks how many hours I spent in front of those early computers teaching myself without realizing how important this would be for the career path that later followed.

I ended up working for a couple of computer resellers early in my career - doing everything from installs, service calls, sales and teaching.  Yes, I actually ended up teaching computer classes on dBase III and Lotus 1-2-3.  Teaching dBase III actually ended up being the precursor that allowed me to get into programming.  I started playing with Clipper - a compiler for the dBase III language.  Then I applied for and got a professional programming job using Clipper.  From there, as they say, the rest is history - moving through my career as a developer, consultant and manager.

None of this would have been possible without IBM and Microsoft partnering together and creating the business class personal computer.  Ask anyone I knew back in those days and you'll hear about how I looked up to these two companies - in my mind, they were at the top of the top, no other company came close to the respect that I held for these two companies.  And my early career was built on this market - migrating to Visual Basic and Visual C++ when Windows took hold.


IBM lost their way and fell down against the IBM compatibles - eventually selling their PC business to Lenovo.  They couldn't figure out a way to compete on cost with the competition.  Go figure, literally, the pinnacle of multinational companies could not figure out how to leverage resources across the world to compete against much smaller companies.  (If you're looking for the full story on IBM's fall - and not just related to PC's - I'll send you to I, Cringely for further reading - The Decline and Fall of IBM.)  IBM is gone from the PC industry and is seeing a decline across their other product lines.  As much as I hate to see this company in the condition it is in, I tend to agree with the assessment that IBM is on it's way down.

Microsoft on the other hand successfully out maneuvered the industry - yes, Apple was there, but they were a niche player.  Along the way, Microsoft made blunders - but was always able to recover.  And why not - they really didn't have any competition, to the point where they were charged and found to be a monopoly. Using their weight to drive competitors out of the market.  Ever hear of the phrase embrace, extend and extinguish?  If you haven't - look it up, it will give you an excellent run down of the way Microsoft controlled the industry.

The first chink in the wall of Microsoft was the open source movement.  Linux in particular and the open source programming languages and tools.  More and more developers became disillusioned with the walled garden of Microsoft and began looking for alternatives - myself included.  Linux, check!  Apache, check!  MySQL, check, Python, check!  All open source, no cost barrier to development or deployment!  What started out as an irritation became a full panic at Microsoft as they ranted about open source being a cancer in the industry.  Today, Linux runs the web.

Then along came the iPhone.  Microsoft initially made jokes about the iPhone - well, that humor came back to bite them in the back end.  The iPhone and iPad have ended the PCs dominance.  I know more and more people that are foregoing the purchase of laptops and desktops at home to purchase 1 or more iPads.  And I'll also wager that Chrome is becoming a bigger and bigger headache for Microsoft.

Apple ruled the smartphone market for several years until Android came along.  The one thing you won't hear is Windows Phone.  Ok, I'll give Microsoft credit Windows Phone isn't bad, but I still prefer iOS.  I'll use Android if I must, but I can never see myself going for Windows phone.

This is where I think Microsoft has really gone nuts - they created Windows 8 to run across phones, tablets and traditional PCs (laptops and desktops).  For those of you that like Win8 - that is your choice.  All I can do is speak for myself and I can not stand this Frankenstein of an OS.  Mindlessly switching me between Metro and traditional windows mode when I want to do various tasks.  I won't go into all of the details, there are plenty of articles out there that get into the details.

Microsoft used to be there for the developer - building the tools and making it easy to get stuff done.  I can't say that anymore.  Developers have moved on to iOS and Android - if it's convenient they'll build a Windows version, but it's usually well after they've developed for the other mobile platforms.  Don't get me wrong, both iOS and the Android environments have their issues, but developers want to be there, not with Microsoft.  And the consumers have spoken as well - at the end of 2013, Windows Phone had a whopping 3% of the world-wide market share of smart phones.

Today's kids want an Android phone or the iPhone - and, yes, that includes my kids.  Do you think when they're ready to move up, that they're going to go with Win8 or with an iPad or a Mac?  Some of them will move to Android tablets.  Fewer and fewer of them are going to choose Win8 machines.

I don't know what Microsoft can do to change the equation.  Is it too late?  Well, the good news is Microsoft has a lot of money in the bank, they've realized that Balmer was leading them off a cliff and have replaced him, and they still have a following.  Will something change in the equation - who knows, but if I was a betting man, I'd say Microsoft will never have the power or control that they had in the 90's and early 2000's.

Tags: Development; Programming; Programming Languages; Change; Decisions; Decision Making; Project Management; SDLC; Lifecycle;

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Back In The Saddle Again ...

I have been distracted with several items over the last few months and apologize for my absence.  That said, let's dig into our discussion and see if we can do some sharing.

Sharing my thoughts on Microsoft ...

My early career was built on Microsoft.  I graduated high school in the early 80's just as the IBM PC started to be sold.  Yep, aging myself.  Anyhow, after learning BASIC and Fortran on a DEC 1170 - I migrated to programming on an IBM PC using BASIC and then learning PASCAL and Assembler.  Then I learned dBase III and Clipper - learning to program against databases.  All on a PC with floppy drives - yep, no hard drives at that time, just dual floppies where you needed to swap disks to manage all of the data.  None of this would have been possible without the OS that Microsoft built and licensed to IBM.

Then in marched the IBM compatibles - Compaq the most successful in the early days.

Not only was I programming, but I also ended up selling IBM and IBM compatible equipment.  The company I worked for let me lug around a Compaq portable while I worked for them.  I had access to Microsoft compilers for Basic and Assembler, and used Borlands Pascal.  The company I worked for also had me teaching programming courses.

Along the way we transitioned to Windows and I learned how to program using MS Visual Basic.  This became my bread and butter for quite some time - allowing 2 buddies and I to eventually open our own consulting firm.  We built a healthy practice, hiring additional developers and working for several local and national companies.

I was able to enter the field of software development right as Microsoft was transitioning the industry.  Moving us all from monolithic computers operating in the back room to a vision of a computer on everyone's desk.  I knew the first time that I saw the IBM PC - that it was my future.  I didn't look back - I wanted nothing to do with the mainframe class machines, I wanted to figure out how these small (by the standards at that time) boxes could be used in business.  And oh how the world turns as I know manage development activity on mainframe class machines and Unix/Linux clusters.

For a long time - Microsoft owned the development community.  They created tools that allowed us to transform the industry, thereby further fueling their growth.

Then Microsoft lost it's way - it became more focused on protecting it's cash cow and locking developers into their environment.  Companies attempted to displace Microsoft and turn us onto their platform, but most failed.  Then along came the browser and smartphones - to say Microsoft was not ready would be an understatement.  They nearly lost the browser wars and only woke up at the last minute to use their monopoly power of the OS to win the browser war.  The smartphone is a different story.  Windows Phone is an also ran and I'm not sure Microsoft will ever have the chance to be a driving platform within the phone space.  Oh, they'll stay in, but in my opinion, they won't truly compete with Google or Apple.  They missed the boat.

On the desktop Win8 was a colossal fail - yes, they can brag about the numbers sold, but most companies are using the license terms to downgrade to Win7.  I personally hate Win8 - it's a mindless combination of OS modes that make no sense on the desktop.  Win8 may be pretty on a tablet and phone, but on the desktop it only irritates.  Where I used to regularly recommend Windows equipped laptops and desktops to friends and family, I've now moved to pushing Apple's ecosystem.  Many people only need an iPad, and for those that need more, the MacBook Air,  MacBook Pro, iMacs and Mac mini's are the choice.

And this is a stunning development - ask my family and friends, for a long, long time I viewed Apple skeptically and always thought they were too expensive.  Well, you may pay more for a Mac, but if that allows me to walk away from the problems that I experience in the Windows environment and mess that they call Win8, it's worth the money.

Where the Apple ecosystem just works, the Microsoft ecosystem confuses - mindlessly flipping between metro mode and desktop mode, sometimes for no apparent reason.

Of all the expert articles written about this farce of an OS and what Microsoft needs to do to fix it, I vote for Windows Red as documented by InfoWorld.

Can they come back, who knows?  They'll never go away, they're too big and have too much money in the bank.  They would really need to screw up to disappear, not saying it can't happen, but the chances are remote.  They have become the new IBM - too big to fail.  

All that taken into context, the best move they could have made was to ditch Balmer and replace him with Satya Nadella.  I don't think Balmer would ever allow Office on the iPad, and while the package introduced by Nadella is handicapped, it's at least a start.  Microsoft appears to be making some steps to stop the ship from sinking - I wish them well, but really wish they'd kill the FrankenOS on the desktop.

I know this has nothing to do with Project Management or specifically with software development, but I thought I needed to do a mind dump on this topic.

Tags: IBM; Microsoft; Windows 7; Windows 8; Win7; Win8; Change;

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